Independent research and analysis of California's developed water systems
This blog post analyzes long term changes in the Sacramento Four River runoff using a 10 year and 30 year running mean. Sacramento River runoff was lower during the Dust Bowl era drought of 1928-34, and the current 30 year mean runoff is close to the mean for the historic record. However, the current 10 … Continue reading Water Board’s Decision 1641 adopted in wetter period
California's FY 2022-23 budget provides huge, once in generation capital investments. And extreme flooding is a growing climate risk, as the ARkStorm 2.0 study by XingYing Huang and Daniel Swain illustrates. In November of 2021, after the extreme flooding in British Columbia, we called for California to prepare for extreme flooding, citing a 2018 study … Continue reading California’s FY 2022-23 budget invests little in flood risk reduction
The problem is not growing water-intensive crops in California, but growing them in the driest areas in the state. The arid scrubland on the southern floor of the San Joaquin Valley gets about 7-8 inches of rain a year.
The Delta tunnel Draft Environmental Impact Report (DEIR) has a new Sea Level Rise Study in Technical Appendix 5A-F. The study was done with Bay-Delta SCHISM, a 3-D hydrodynamic model of the San Francisco Bay and Delta. The new SCHISM study has limitations, in that it assumes that Delta levees are raised to keep up … Continue reading Delta tunnel — Inconvenient truths about sea level rise and salinity intrusion
Professor Brent Flyvbjerg is an internationally renowned expert in megaprojects. His research has shown how megaprojects are systematically subject to "survival of the unfittest." Flyvbjerg’s 2021 paper, Top Ten Behavioral Biases in Project Management: An Overview, describes several behavioral biases which are relevant to the Delta tunnel project. They include strategic misrepresentation, optimism bias, planning … Continue reading Delta tunnel EIR shows predictable megaproject management biases
On June 8, 2022, DWR’s Director, Karla Nemeth, made a presentation on the Delta tunnel project to the Delta Independent Science Board (Delta ISB), with several of the scientists who had worked on the project. She said that she supported the Delta ISB’s review of the project. But unlike the twin tunnels project, the Department … Continue reading Delta ISB review of Delta tunnel project proceeding under huge time pressure
The State Water Resources Control Board’s Climate Change Mitigation Strategist, Max Gomberg, just retired, and sent an incendiary parting letter to his colleagues, stating, Witnessing the agency’s ability to tackle big challenges nearly eviscerated by this Administration has been gut wrenching. The way some of you have simply rolled over and accepted this has also … Continue reading The eye of the storm and the State Water Resources Control Board
On June 27, 2022, the legislature authorized the Acting State Auditor to perform an audit of the reasons for major errors Department of Water Resource's snow runoff forecasts in 2021. The Department of Water Resources' Director, Karla Nemeth, told the legislature that "the forecasting work is undertaken exclusively by the Department of Water Resources. The … Continue reading Expert panel recommended that Water Board require documentation of model weaknesses
The drought years of 2021 and 2022 saw major errors in the Department of Water Resources' Bulletin 120 runoff forecasts and Delivery Capability Report water supply projections. The Joint Legislative Audit Committee authorized an audit of DWR's modeling and water management on June 27, 2022. But the model errors are part of larger institutional issues … Continue reading Problems with Bay-Delta water resources modeling have been recognized for decades
I went to graduate school at the University of California, Santa Cruz in the 1990s. Although there were many things I loved about the campus, they had also had serious issues with the campus' handling of violence against female students. There had been a major Title IX complaint, supported by female faculty members. After an … Continue reading Tales from the Water Wars — on becoming a warrior