Climate change: a conversation on interconnected risks

Interconnected people

This is part of a Twitter conversation with Chris Parker, a UK hydrologist who specializes in climate hazards and climate impacts, on Jan 1, 2022. Chris Parker @HyperHydr0 I often wonder how many possible climate hazards, impacts or risks there are that no one has either experienced, observed or thought possible. Given the events of … Continue reading Climate change: a conversation on interconnected risks

Fatal errors in DWR’s runoff forecasting: comments to the State Water Resources Control Board

The State Water Resources Control Board held a workshop today (March 16, 2022) on Sacramento River Temperature Management. Among the topics considered were "hydrologic conditions, including operations, forecasting, and accounting." These were my comments. This is Deirdre Des Jardins with California Water Research. I’m the physicist who sent comments to DWR in 2012 predicting the … Continue reading Fatal errors in DWR’s runoff forecasting: comments to the State Water Resources Control Board

California Environmental Flows Framework — comments to the Delta ISB

Picture of dry creek

On Thursday March 10, 2022, the Delta Independent Science Board had a presentation by Sarah Yarnell (UC Davis) and Julie Zimmerman (The Nature Conservancy) on the California Environmental Flows Framework, and the opportunities and challenges in  applying environmental flows in California. These were my comments: I really appreciate the comments by [Delta ISB members] Tanya … Continue reading California Environmental Flows Framework — comments to the Delta ISB

We need to step up our game on evaluating drought risk

elevated drought risk impact Feb 20 2022

The Department of Water Resources’ new California Water Watch website is a great new resource, however, the site appears to miss information on the rapidly developing drought. The website displays statewide precipitation for the water year to date. It also displays a map of “Drought Risk Impacts” based on precipitation being less than 70% of … Continue reading We need to step up our game on evaluating drought risk

Dear DWR, in runoff forecasting, stationarity is dead

For decades, the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) has relied on runoff forecasts from the California Cooperative Snow Surveys (Bulletin 120) for planning State Water Project operations in the late winter and early spring. In 2021, the Bulletin 120 runoff forecasts, which were based on the last 50 years of historic runoff data, were … Continue reading Dear DWR, in runoff forecasting, stationarity is dead

California water whiplash predicted in 2012 study

Tree in wet and dry landscape

Water whiplash  in California was predicted in a 2012 study by Sarah Null and Josh Viers, funded by the California Energy Commission's PIER program. The study shows the importance of independent research. At the time of Null and Viers' CEC study, the Department of Water Resources' climate change simulation methods used Global Circulation Model (GCM) … Continue reading California water whiplash predicted in 2012 study

Responses to COP26 and the attack/flight catastrophe model

The outcome of COP26 has evoked very divergent responses from different climate scientists and activists. Climate scientist Katherine Hayhoe tweeted, Is #COP26 enough? No. Did anyone expect it to be enough? I sure didn't; this is a more ambitious effort to work together than anything we humans have ever, ever accomplished. But is it more … Continue reading Responses to COP26 and the attack/flight catastrophe model

Mountain and polar groups urgently call for more time at COP26

The California’s Ocean Protection Council's 2018 Sea Level Rise Guidance projects up to 2 meters (6.9 feet) of sea level rise by 2100 [1].  In 2019, researchers at the US Geological Survey published a study of the risk from inundation from up to 2 m of sea level rise plus 100 year storm surge (Barnard … Continue reading Mountain and polar groups urgently call for more time at COP26

For California water management, delay is denial of climate change impacts

Climate scientist Michael Mann wrote an Op Ed in the LA Times, On the climate crisis, delay has become the new form of denial. The Op Ed has many concepts that resonate with what is happening with California water management. Mann argues: One can no longer credibly deny that climate change is real, human-caused, and a … Continue reading For California water management, delay is denial of climate change impacts

On scientific confluence and the challenges of avoiding a ghastly future in California water

Seventy years ago, psychologists Fritz Perls, Paul Hefferline, and Richard Goodman defined confluence as considering different viewpoints and assimilating them into one's own worldview [1]: At the end of any successful experience – one that is not interrupted but allowed to complete itself – there is always a confluence of energy or energy producing materials. … Continue reading On scientific confluence and the challenges of avoiding a ghastly future in California water